The Hidden Costs of the El-Sayed Agenda: A Shock to Michigan's Manufacturing Core

Key findings

1. El-Sayed supports repealing the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which permanently enacted full expensing and R&D expensing. Ernst & Young projects that reverting to the pre-2025 tax code could put 5.9 million U.S. jobs and $1.1 trillion in GDP at risk, with manufacturing bearing the largest share.
2. El-Sayed's proposed wealth tax on unrealized capital gains would force family-owned and mid-sized manufacturers to siphon operating cash flow or liquidate physical assets to pay annual tax bills on illiquid factory equipment and machinery.
3. El-Sayed has committed to passing the PRO Act, which would override Right to Work laws in 27 states and eliminate secret ballot union elections. Independent analysis projects the PRO Act's joint-employer provisions alone could impose $33.3 billion in annual costs and eliminate over 350,000 jobs.
4. El-Sayed has called for '100% renewable energy yesterday' and supports shutting down the Line 5 pipeline. The Consumer Energy Alliance projects a Line 5 closure would eliminate 33,755 jobs and reduce annual labor income by $265.7 million across Michigan and neighboring industrial states.
5. A rapid, mandated transition to 100 percent renewables would phase out the natural gas and nuclear baseload power that currently guarantees uninterrupted electricity to Michigan's energy-intensive assembly lines and production facilities.

Full report

## Executive Summary Michigan's identity and economic engine are inseparable from its manufacturing base, a sector that sustains roughly 580,000 livelihoods across the state. Abdul El-Sayed's campaign for the U.S. Senate proposes a sweeping transformation of the American economic landscape. While his platform promises to empower workers and transition the nation to clean energy, a rigorous examination of his specific policy proposals—ranging from aggressive tax code overhauls to sweeping labor and energy mandates—reveals a profoundly disruptive agenda for Michigan's industrial heartland. Independent economic assessments indicate that his proposals would systematically drive up capital costs, destabilize labor relations, and jeopardize the reliable, affordable energy grid that heavy industry requires to remain globally competitive. ## Dismantling Pro-Growth Tax Architecture A central pillar of El-Sayed's economic platform is the repeal of the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which he argues disproportionately benefits the wealthy. However, this legislation codified critical provisions that capital-intensive industries rely upon to modernize facilities and innovate. Specifically, the law permanently enshrined 100 percent full expensing for new equipment purchases and immediate deduction for domestic research and development (R&D) costs. For a Michigan auto parts supplier looking to retool an assembly line or invest in next-generation robotics, the ability to immediately deduct those massive upfront costs is often the deciding factor in whether the investment happens domestically or at all. According to macroeconomic modeling by Ernst & Young, allowing these specific provisions to expire fundamentally alters the math for business investment. The firm projects that reverting to the pre-2025 tax code would shrink the U.S. economy, putting an estimated 5.9 million jobs and $1.1 trillion in GDP at risk over the long term, with the manufacturing sector bearing the brunt of the contraction. Compounding this capital squeeze is El-Sayed's endorsement of a federal wealth tax on unrealized capital gains. Unlike liquid stock portfolios, a manufacturer's wealth is typically locked in illiquid assets—factory floors, heavy machinery, and proprietary technology. A tax on unrealized gains would effectively force family-owned and mid-sized manufacturers to siphon operating cash flow, or worse, liquidate physical assets, merely to satisfy annual tax liabilities on the hypothetical, paper value of their equipment. ## Rewriting the Rules of Labor El-Sayed has firmly aligned himself with organized labor's most aggressive legislative priority: the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act. He has also called for a ban on corporate stock buybacks and mandated employee representation on corporate boards. The PRO Act represents the most radical rewrite of federal labor law since the 1930s. It would override state-level Right to Work laws and eliminate the long-standing protection of secret ballot union elections. More concerning for complex manufacturing supply chains, the legislation broadens the definition of "joint-employer" status and heavily restricts the use of independent contractors. In the highly integrated world of Michigan manufacturing, where a single final product relies on a web of independent specialized vendors, logistics providers, and contractors, the PRO Act introduces massive liability risks. Independent economic analysis suggests that the joint-employer and independent contractor provisions alone could impose up to $33.3 billion in annual costs on the economy, threatening over 350,000 jobs nationwide. By shifting power dramatically and removing flexibility, these policies risk turning Michigan into a less attractive environment for industrial expansion. ## Energy Mandates: Gambling with the Grid Perhaps the most immediate operational threat to heavy industry comes from El-Sayed's energy agenda. He has unequivocally called for a transition to "100% renewable energy... yesterday." His platform includes halting fossil-fuel leases on public lands and aggressively shutting down existing infrastructure, most notably the Line 5 pipeline. Manufacturing is inherently energy-intensive; factories cannot operate on intermittent power or weather extreme price volatility. A forced, rapid transition to 100 percent renewables inherently requires phasing out the natural gas and nuclear baseloads that currently guarantee uninterrupted power to assembly lines. The targeted closure of the Line 5 pipeline offers a concrete preview of this disruption. Line 5 is a critical artery supplying light crude and natural gas liquids to regional refineries. An independent analysis by the Consumer Energy Alliance modeled the fallout of shutting down this specific pipeline. The study projected the loss of 33,755 jobs and a $265.7 million hit to annual labor income across Michigan and neighboring industrial states. Furthermore, the resulting supply shock would directly spike fuel and propane prices, hitting the bottom lines of both manufacturers and the working families they employ. ## Conclusion When evaluated collectively, Abdul El-Sayed's policy platform presents a hostile environment for Michigan's manufacturing sector. By targeting the tax provisions that incentivize capital investment, introducing rigid labor mandates that threaten supply chain flexibility, and pursuing aggressive energy policies that jeopardize grid reliability and affordability, this agenda threatens the foundational elements required for industrial growth. For a state whose economic vitality is inextricably linked to making things, these policies represent a significant and quantifiable risk.